Macro headwinds and inventory buildup during off-season push tin prices under pressure [SMM tin midday review]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) rebounded slightly in the morning session today, closing at around 264,800 yuan/mt at midday, down 0.32%. It broke below the support of the 20-day moving average and returned to the center of the sideways movement range between 265,000 and 270,000 yuan/mt.

LME tin contract: Overnight, LME tin closed at $33,350/mt, up 0.27%. In the Asian session today, it remained in the doldrums, trading within the range of $33,000-33,500/mt.

Impact of US tariff policy: The Trump administration announced differentiated tariff increases on 14 countries (e.g., 25% for Japan and South Korea, 30%-40% for Southeast Asian countries), effective August 1. This move exacerbated global trade friction risks, suppressed risk appetite in the non-ferrous metals sector, and caused tin prices to decline in tandem with industrial metals like copper and zinc.

Expectations of tightening US dollar liquidity: US June non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations (with 147,000 new jobs added), reducing the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index rebounded, further pressuring LME tin prices, which are denominated in US dollars.

Sluggish spot market: Traders reported a decline in transactions today, with strong wait-and-see sentiment.

SHFE tin may continue to fluctuate rangebound between 262,000 and 270,000 yuan/mt. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low of 262,000 yuan/mt. If macro headwinds intensify (e.g., tariff details are finalized), it may fall to 255,000 yuan/mt.

For LME tin, attention should be paid to the key support at $32,000 (the previous trading center), with resistance at $34,000.